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Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplier of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca coat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase. In this memo the vice president of Satorian which is a men's apparel company cites that this factory has started to produce their deluxe alpaca overcoat as far as they can provide a new fabric supplier after 5 years of lacking decent supplies. As a result of this interruption, the company will get the chance to sell this product very well and make a high profit. To support this recommendation, the memo relies on the increasing of clothes price after five years along with the fact that their competitor has not produced alpaca overcoat for a while so there would be a highly demand of alpaca overcoat in the market. Close scrutiny of this evidence reveals that it lends little credible support to the author's assertion. First of all, the memo indicates that this company will find the opportunity to sell its product very well due to the fact that they have not produced it for five years. Yet the author provides no evidence to this assumption. Perhaps the fashion industry has changed during this period and customers have little interest in wearing old-fashioned garments. Or perhaps other companies offer higher quality of alpaca overcoats with lower prices and therefore, people prefer to purchase the coat from these companies. Lacking clearer and substantial evidence, the author cannot convince me that this gap makes people motivated to buy alpaca coat from Satorian. Similarly, the fact that Satorian's major competitor has not produced alpaca coat for years so they will have the chance to sell their product lends no support to the argument. It is possible that, as mentioned above, there would be other companies which make this kind of coats. Also, there would be a possibility that the competitor company has decided to stop its production after studying markets' demands. Without considering and ruling out these and other explanations reproducing the alpaca coat may turn to an unsuccessful project. Moreover, the argument unfairly implies that there is a strong correlation between recent upward trends in clothes prices and the company benefits,. however, the author provides no evidence that this is a case. It is entirely possible that the growth in clothes price during 5 years is attributable to theincreasing of the raw material costs. As a consequence, the author cannot confidentially conclude that this growth will result in the company profits. In conclusion, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation, the vice president must provide clearer evidence that indicates there is not any competitor company that produces this type of coats and the fabric costs and other factors such as average of workers' wage have not changed during this period. moreover, there must be a substantial proof that demonstrates people's enthusiasm for wearing alpaca coats.